Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined 225.90 points to 25,960.55, slipping below the 26,000 mark but still holding key support levels and preserving a broadly stable structure. The index remains well above the 51-day SMA at 25,650.88, highlighting firm underlying support, while the RSI at 51.16 reflects softening momentum. Immediate support lies near 25,500, with resistance around 26,500. A sustained move above 26,350 would be needed to reinforce near-term sentiment.

Macro Update: The dollar index stayed below 99 as markets increasingly expect the Fed to deliver a 25-bps rate cut this week, though Powell may guide cautiously on future easing. Attention now shifts to the delayed JOLTS report for labour signals, while other major central banks, including Australia and Canada, are set to hold rates.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tech Mahindra Ltd (NSE: TECHM) led the gainers with a 1.34% increase, closing at INR 1,591.80 followed by Wipro Ltd (NSE: WIPRO) up 0.57% at INR 261.38 and HCL Technologies Ltd (NSE: HCLTECH) which rose 0.33% to INR 1,688.60. On the downside followed InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE: INDIGO) saw the largest drop, falling 8.32% to INR 4,923.50 followed Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) down 5.04% to INR 386.40 and JSW Steel Ltd (NSE: JSWSTEEL), which dropped 3.71% to INR 1,119.10.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar steadied on Monday after two weeks of selling as markets await a heavy week of central bank meetings, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, where an interest rate cut is largely priced in despite a split committee. Australia, Brazil, Canada and Switzerland are expected to hold policy unchanged. Gold fell 0.13% to USD 4,237.30, silver 1.32% to USD 58.28, copper 0.12% to USD 11,627.00, while Brent edged up 0.06% to USD 63.79 on growth hopes and supply risks.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautiously steady as Nifty hovers near key support, with momentum indicators showing mild softness. Global cues stay data-dependent ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut, while commodity moves signal mixed risk appetite. Equity performance remains stock-specific, with tech resilience contrasting pressure in aviation, defence, and metals.

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