Index Update: The Nifty 50 slipped 108.65 points to close at 25,959.50, yet the index maintains its broader bullish structure. It continues to trade comfortably above the 51-day EMA at 25,537.53, indicating firm underlying support. The RSI at 57.38 reflects stable momentum, staying in the neutral-to-bullish zone. Immediate support is placed near 25,500, while resistance is seen around 26,300. A sustained move above 26,150 could revive upside momentum and improve near-term sentiment.

Macro Update: ndia’s 10-year bond yield climbed above 6.5%, a three-week high, amid optimism over upcoming reform bills in the winter session. Markets now await Q3 GDP data, expected at 7.3%. However, record trade deficits, weaker manufacturing and services, and pressure from US tariffs continue to weigh on sentiment.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tech Mahindra Ltd (NSE: TECHM) led the gainers with a 2.27% increase, closing at INR 1,494.70 followed by Eicher Motors Ltd (NSE: EICHERMOT) up 1.74% at INR 7,258.50 and Bajaj Auto Ltd (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) which rose 1.30% to INR 9,007.50. On the downside Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) saw the largest drop, falling 3.01% to INR 403.80 followed JSW Steel Ltd (NSE: JSWSTEEL) down 3.01% to INR 1,106.00 and Max Healthcare Institute Ltd (NSE: MAXHEALTH), which dropped 2.14% to INR 1,155.80.

Commodity Update: The dollar remained firm on Monday as traders remained alert to potential yen intervention signals. At the same time, UK gilt markets turned cautious ahead of the British budget in a holiday-shortened week. New Zealand is also expected to cut rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Commodities softened, with gold down 0.86% to USD 4,080.40, silver easing 0.71% to USD 49.56, and copper marginally lower. Brent crude dipped 0.22% to USD 62.42 as Russia-Ukraine peace talks showed progress and a stronger dollar weighed on prices.

Our Stance: Market conditions suggest a cautiously constructive outlook. Equities retain upward momentum while staying sensitive to macro risks, including trade pressures and bond-yield movements. Selective strength in large caps persists, but near-term volatility may remain elevated. A balanced approach focused on quality, earnings resilience, and disciplined risk management appears most appropriate.

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