Index Update: The Nifty 50 dropped to close at 22,819.60, as renewed selling interest reinforced short-term bearish momentum. From a technical standpoint, the broader outlook remains cautiously negative, with the index continuing to face resistance near key levels. On the daily chart, Nifty remains below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), a widely tracked trend indicator that is now acting as a dynamic resistance. This setup reinforces the prevailing negative bias, suggesting that any near-term pullbacks may face selling pressure. Unless the index reclaims this moving average decisively, upside potential could remain limited, while continued weakness may keep the market under pressure in the sessions ahead.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to a 19-month high near 6.9%, driven by rising crude prices, fiscal concerns, and heavy government borrowing supply. Excise duty cuts and a weakening rupee added pressure, while elevated inflation risks and volatile equities reflected tightening financial conditions and heightened investor caution across domestic markets.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE:ONGC) led the gainers with a 4.35% increase, closing at INR 281.95 followed by Wipro Limited (NSE:WIPRO)  up 1.35% at INR 191.60 and Tata Consultancy Services Limited (NSE:TCS)  which rose 0.52% to INR 2,389.80. On the downside followed Tech Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) saw the largest drop, falling 5.46% to INR 903.80 followed Tata Motors Passenger Vhcls Ltd  (NSE:TMPV) down 4.64% to INR 303.20 and Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE), which dropped 4.60% to INR 1,348.10.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened toward multi-month highs on Friday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East tensions and uncertainty over diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran. Gold rose 1.00% to USD 4,451.82, silver gained 0.95% to USD 68.578, and copper increased 0.80% to USD 12,232.63. Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped 1.00% to USD 100.83, reflecting easing geopolitical risk premiums and cautious optimism over negotiations.

Our Stance: The market stance remains cautious as Nifty trades below its 50-day SMA, signalling persistent short-term weakness. Rising bond yields, currency pressure, and elevated crude-linked inflation risks continue to weigh on sentiment. Defensive positioning may dominate near term, while any recovery attempts could face resistance unless key technical levels are reclaimed decisively.

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