Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,382.60, extending its recent decline and remaining below its 21-day SMA near 23,809.92, reflecting a weak near-term technical structure. Recent price action shows the index drifting lower after failing to sustain gains during the recent consolidation phase, with sellers maintaining control near short-term resistance levels. The 14-day RSI near 40.27 remained below the neutral mark, indicating subdued momentum conditions and a lack of strong recovery signals. Immediate support levels are placed near 23,032 and 22,681, while resistance is seen around 23,733 and 24,084. A sustained move above the resistance zone could improve the short-term outlook, while a break below support may keep the index under pressure in the sessions ahead.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield climbed toward 7.1%, reflecting investor caution ahead of the RBI’s policy decision. Rising crude oil prices, fiscal deficit concerns, and persistent foreign capital outflows have pressured debt markets. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, uncertainty around inflation and future policy guidance continues to weigh on sentiment.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM)  led the gainers with a 4.00% increase, closing at INR 1,543.20 followed by Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) up 3.58% at INR 1,202.50 and Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) which rose 3.21% to INR 472.60. On the downside followed Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE:HINDUNILVR) saw the largest drop, falling 3.21% to INR 2,084.30 followed Tata Consumer Products Limited (NSE:TATACONSUM) down 2.98% to INR 1,143.30 and Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN), which dropped 2.97% to INR 919.05.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar traded largely unchanged on Monday after posting a weekly decline, as investors focused on developments from Middle East peace talks and awaited further central bank policy signals. Gold fell 0.98% to USD 4,548.10 per ounce, silver slipped 0.06% to USD 75.82, while copper gained 0.45% to USD 13,677.80. Brent crude declined 2.10% to USD 92.99 per barrel as renewed fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon kept Middle East supply concerns in focus.

Our Stance: Despite ongoing weakness in the Nifty 50 and cautious sentiment ahead of the RBI policy decision, resilient gains in select technology and mining stocks indicate underlying sector-specific strength. Elevated bond yields, foreign outflows, and macro uncertainties may keep markets volatile, with investor focus remaining on policy guidance, inflation trends, and global commodity movements.

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