Index Update: The NIFTY 50 is trading near 24,231.30, up 1.63% in the session, after extending its rebound from the recent lows near 22,000. The index has also moved back above its 21-day Simple Moving Average near 23,282.79, suggesting that the near-term structure has improved. The 14-day RSI has strengthened to 55.86, reflecting firmer momentum after recovering from lower levels. On the downside, support is placed around 23,800–23,500. On the upside, resistance is located near 24,500–24,600, which may remain an important zone for the ongoing recovery.

Macro Update: India’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 20.67 billion in March 2026, supported by higher exports (USD 38.92 billion) and lower imports (USD 59.59 billion), beating expectations. However, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and reliance on Gulf shipping routes continue to pose risks through potential supply disruptions and rising trade costs.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO) led the gainers with a 4.76% increase, closing at INR 4,638.00 followed by Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) up 4.42% at INR 246.67 and Max Healthcare Institute Limited (NSE:MAXHEALTH) which rose 4.03% to INR 990.05. On the downside followed Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited (NSE:DRREDDY) saw the largest drop, falling 1.46% to INR 1,217.80 followed Bharti Airtel Limited (NSE:BHARTIARTL) down 0.81% to INR 1,855.70 and ICICI Bank Limited (NSE:ICICIBANK), which dropped 0.22% to INR 1,348.10.

Commodity Update: The dollar remained largely flat on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibility that peace talks between the United States and Iran could resume, potentially easing supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Risk appetite was also supported by a cooler-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report. Gold slipped 0.18% to USD 4,842.15, while silver gained 0.50% to USD 79.96. Copper edged up 0.01% to USD 13,284.00, and Brent crude advanced 0.51% to USD 95.41 per barrel.

Our Stance: The near-term outlook remains cautiously constructive, supported by improved index structure above key moving averages and stabilizing momentum indicators. However, resistance near 24,500–24,600 and ongoing geopolitical risks linked to West Asia may limit sharp upside, keeping markets prone to range-bound movement with selective buying interest.

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