Index Update: NIFTY50 Index declined by 100.20 points to close at 25,942.10. The move was accompanied by a bearish candlestick formation and healthy trading volumes, suggesting that negative market sentiment remains intact. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which reinforces the prevailing bearish bias. A key resistance level is positioned near 26,100. A decisive breakout above this zone could signal a broader recovery, potentially shifting momentum in favor of the bulls. Such a development may attract renewed buying interest and help improve overall investor sentiment.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee traded steady near 89.8 per dollar, supported by a weaker greenback and RBI liquidity measures. Improved risk sentiment and resilient domestic growth aided stability after recent volatility. However, year-to-date depreciation remains notable amid subdued capital inflows, trade-related uncertainty, and elevated import demand for dollars.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL) led the gainers with a 1.88% increase, closing at INR 172.30 followed by Tata Consumer Products Ltd (NSE: TATACONSUM) up 1.66% at INR 1,195.20 and Asian Paints Ltd (NSE: ASIANPAINT) which rose 1.05% to INR 2,775.40. On the downside followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (NSE: ADANIPORTS) saw the largest drop, falling 2.20% to INR 1,454.40 followed Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (NSE: POWERGRID) down 1.83% to INR 260.60 and HCL Technologies Ltd (NSE: HCLTECH), which dropped 1.38% to INR 1,630.80.

Commodity Update: The yen recovered modestly on Monday after last week’s sharp decline, as markets reassessed the timing of further BoJ rate hikes and potential intervention risks amid thin year-end trading. In commodities, gold slipped 0.34% to USD 4,537.20, silver rose 1.30% to USD 78.203, and copper surged 6.32% to USD 12,883.00. Brent crude climbed 0.90% to USD 60.78, supported by renewed Middle East supply concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums, although uncertainty around Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations continue to cap upside momentum.

Our Stance: Markets remain under short-term pressure as NIFTY50 trades below key moving averages, indicating cautious sentiment. While macro stability and selective stock strength offer support, elevated global uncertainties and technical resistance suggest a range-bound to mildly bearish bias until clearer breakout signals emerge.

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