Index Update: The Nifty 50 closed at 25,461.30, holding well above its 50-day EMA of 24,843.52, confirming the ongoing uptrend. A bearish candlestick near recent highs suggests resistance, while the RSI at 61.02 indicates improving momentum. Maintaining above the key 25,000 support is vital for trend continuation. A decisive breakout above the 26,000 resistances could reignite bullish sentiment and open the door for fresh upside in the near term.

Macro Update: India faces renewed trade uncertainty as the U.S. confirms reciprocal tariffs from August 1 and threatens a 10% levy on BRICS-aligned nations. While India balances ties with both blocs, its U.S.-oriented exports may come under pressure. Accelerating trade deals and maintaining strategic autonomy will be vital as global trade politics grow more unpredictable ahead of the tariff deadline.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NSE: HINDUNILVR) led the gainers with a 3.04% increase, closing at INR 2,410.40 followed by Nestle India Ltd (NSE: NESTLEIND) up 1.22% at INR 2,422.10, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd (NSE: TATACONSUM) which rose 1.12% to INR 1,101.90. On the downside, Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) saw the largest drop, falling 2.44% to INR 417.10 followed Tech Mahindra Ltd (NSE: TECHM) down 1.89% to INR 1,623.90 and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (NSE: ONGC), which dropped 1.52% to INR 241.52.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar stayed near its lowest since 2021 versus the euro and its weakest since 2015 against the Swiss franc on Monday, as markets awaited trade headlines ahead of President Donald Trump's tariff deadline. Gold fell $0.82% to $3,319.10, silver slipped 0.37% to $36.99, copper declined 0.37% to $9,830.45, and Brent crude dropped 1.11% to $67.50 amid OPEC+ output hike concerns.

Our Stance: The Nifty’s resilience above 25,000 and its 50-day EMA signals strength, but global trade tensions pose headwinds. A breakout above 26,000 could revive bullish momentum. Amid rising tariff risks, we remain cautiously optimistic, favoring defensive plays and export-resilient sectors while watching macro cues closely for potential shifts.

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