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Rupee Stabilizes After RBI Intervention but Risks Persist

Rupee Stabilizes After RBI Intervention but Risks Persist

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The NIFTY 50 gained 285.40 points (1.17%) to close at 24,765.90, after opening at 24,615.95 and trading within a range of 24,529.40–24,854.20 during the session. The index witnessed a recovery from lower levels, indicating buying interest near the support zone. However, it continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,617.61, which remains an immediate resistance level. The RSI at 37.55 suggests subdued momentum, though it is gradually improving from lower levels. On the downside, 24,500.00–24,200.00 may act as an important support zone, while 25,000.00–25,600.00 could serve as a strong resistance band in the near term.

Macro Update:  India’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield declined to around 6.64%, reaching a more than one-month low as investors moved toward safer assets amid rising geopolitical tensions. The shift in sentiment followed the sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, reportedly struck by a US submarine in international waters near Sri Lanka, which intensified concerns about the widening conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Heightened uncertainty encouraged demand for safer government securities, pushing bond prices higher and yields lower. However, the downward movement in yields was partly limited by pressure in global bond markets, where rising crude prices have raised fears of persistent inflation and possible delays in interest-rate cuts by major central banks.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE: ADANIPORTS) led the gainers with a 3.82% increase, closing at INR 1,489.20 followed by Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE: HINDALCO) up 3.79% at INR 956.70 and Larsen & Toubro Limited (NSE: LT) which rose 3.72% to INR 4,027.00. On the downside Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE: TECHM) saw the largest drop, falling 1.38% to INR 1,332.50 followed by ICICI Bank Limited (NSE: ICICIBANK) down 0.89% to INR 1,353.30 and HCL Technologies Limited (NSE: HCLTECH), which dropped 0.61% to INR 1,355.70.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar paused its sharp rally on Thursday, offering brief relief to the struggling euro as investors hoped the Middle East conflict may not drag on as long as feared. Safe-haven demand lifted precious metals, with gold rising 1.33% to USD 5,203.70 and silver jumping 2.92% to USD 85.61, while copper gained 0.69% to USD 13,147. Meanwhile, Brent crude climbed 2.05% to USD 83.07 amid concerns over the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil flows.

Our Stance: Despite the recovery, the rupee remains under pressure due to a strong US dollar and elevated oil prices, with Brent Crude trading above $80 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial route for India’s energy imports. Persistently high oil prices could widen India’s external deficit and increase demand for dollars from importers, while geopolitical uncertainty has also prompted some foreign investors to reduce exposure to Indian equities.

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