Index Update: The NIFTY 50 Index is trading near 23,114.50, gaining around 0.49%, but remains below its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 25,074, indicating a weak broader price structure. The recent price action reflects a sharp decline followed by a mild rebound, suggesting a short-term recovery within an ongoing corrective phase. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI near 31.84, showing recovery from oversold levels. On the downside, 22,800–22,500 may act as support, while 24,000–24,800 could act as a resistance band.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year bond yield rose to ~6.77%, a one-month high, as elevated crude prices heightened inflation and policy tightening concerns. Bond markets declined for a sixth session, while the rupee weakened past 93/USD. Liquidity pressures and weak deposit growth are pushing banks toward increased market borrowings.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) led the gainers with a 3.42% increase, closing at INR 1,169.60 followed by Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM) up 3.30% at INR 1,384.80 and Tata Steel Limited (NSE:TATASTEEL) which rose 3.29% to INR 196.77. On the downside followed Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) saw the largest drop, falling 2.54% to INR 874.25 followed HDFC Bank Limited (NSE:HDFCBANK) down 2.22% to INR 780.45 and HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE:HDFCLIFE), which dropped 1.55% to INR 623.65.

Commodity Update: The dollar retreated from multi-month highs as rising energy prices reshaped global rate expectations, leaving the U.S. Federal Reserve as the only major central bank unlikely to hike rates this year. Earlier expectations of two rate cuts have faded. Gold jumped 2.45% to USD 4,719.10, silver rose 4.18% to USD 74.13, and copper gained 0.86% to USD 12,297.70, while Brent crude declined 2.00% to USD 116.48.

Our Stance: Market conditions remain fragile despite a mild rebound, with Nifty trading below key moving averages and momentum still weak. Elevated crude prices, rising bond yields, and currency pressure continue to pose risks. Near-term direction is likely to remain volatile, driven by global cues and the index’s ability to sustain above support levels.