Highlights

• Brent crude is trading near $109.25, extending a sharp rally over the past two weeks.
  • Prices have surged nearly 16.00% in two weeks amid escalating Iran-related supply disruptions.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal, keeping tensions elevated.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains largely restricted, tightening global oil supply flows.
  • RSI has moved above 60.26, indicating improving momentum after recent consolidation.
  • Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and central bank signals.

Overview

Brent crude oil is currently trading near $109.25, maintaining its upward trajectory after a strong rally over the past two weeks. The commodity has gained sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global supply chains.

The rally has been driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely constrained. Around 20.00% of global oil flows typically pass through this route, making any disruption highly impactful on prices.

Despite intermittent attempts at negotiation, oil markets remain on edge, with supply risks continuing to dominate sentiment.

Why Oil Prices Are Rising

The primary driver behind the recent surge in oil prices is the ongoing geopolitical standoff between the U.S. and Iran.

Recent reports indicate that President Donald Trump and his administration are unhappy with Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as it delays discussions around Iran’s nuclear program. This has created a deadlock in negotiations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term resolution.

At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely restricted, with limited tanker movement and ongoing naval tensions. This has significantly reduced oil flows and tightened global supply.

The broader conflict has now extended close to two months, with no clear progress in peace talks. Failed diplomatic efforts and continued military positioning have reinforced concerns that supply disruptions may persist longer than expected.

Additionally, the U.S. naval blockade of Iran has further strained exports, with reports suggesting that Iran’s oil production may decline due to storage constraints and export limitations.

Supply Shock and Market Impact

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz represents one of the largest supply shocks in recent years. Oil shipments through the region have dropped sharply, creating a significant imbalance between supply and demand.

Analysts estimate that millions of barrels per day have been impacted due to the blockade and reduced shipping activity. This has led to a sharp increase in risk premium in oil prices.

The sustained rally in oil prices is also raising concerns about global inflation, as higher energy costs are likely to feed into broader economic indicators.

Technical View

Brent crude oil is currently trading near $109.25, well above its 50-day moving average near $94.94, indicating a strong upward trend.

The price structure shows a clear breakout followed by consolidation and continuation, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive. The recent candles indicate steady upward movement with minor pauses.

The 14-day RSI is around 60.26, reflecting improving momentum without entering overbought territory. This suggests that the rally still has room to extend if momentum sustains.

The immediate support zone is placed near $98.00–89.00. As long as prices hold above this range, the bullish structure remains intact.

On the upside, resistance is seen near $120.00–130.00. A sustained move above $110.00 could open the path toward testing the higher resistance zone in the coming sessions.

Latest News

Recent developments indicate that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled, with no breakthrough in talks. President Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal has added to uncertainty, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate under severe restrictions.

Oil prices have already climbed close to $110.00 per barrel, with analysts suggesting that the market is adjusting to a prolonged period of supply disruption.

At the same time, central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan are being closely watched, as rising oil prices could influence inflation expectations and policy decisions.

Key Risks

• Any breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations could ease supply concerns and pressure prices.
  • A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a sharp pullback in oil prices.
  • Higher oil prices could trigger demand slowdown in global markets.
  • Central bank tightening due to inflation risks may impact broader commodity sentiment.

Summary

Brent crude oil has surged sharply over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. The rejection of Iran’s proposal by the U.S. has kept markets on edge, while restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices.

The technical structure remains positive, with key support near $98.00–89.00 and resistance around $120.00–130.00. Going forward, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, making volatility a key theme in the near term.

FAQs

Why has Brent crude oil risen sharply?
Oil prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

What is the current price of Brent crude oil?
Brent crude is trading near $109.25.

What are the key levels to watch in oil?
Support is placed near $98.00–89.00, while resistance is seen near $120.00–130.00.